The championship equation at Hawke’s Bay 

The 2021 Brian Green Property Group New Zealand Rally Championship is very likely to be decided at this weekend’s Kennedy Park Resort Rally Hawke’s Bay.

Hayden Paddon (Hyundai NZ i20) can wrap it up simply by finishing the rally and will claim his fifth title.

The only two drivers that can beat Paddon to the title are Hydraulink Subaru driver Ben Hunt or Regan Ross in the Virgin White Ford Fiesta but both would need to dominate not just Hawke’s Bay this week but also Dayle ITM Goldrush Rally Coromandel in September.

It isn’t just the overall championship that can be decided this week so let’s take a look at the scenarios.

Overall and Cat 1:

Paddon just needs to finish the rally to become the 2021 champion. If Paddon DNF’s and scores no power stage points, to keep the championship alive:

• Hunt would have to win and score at least a point in the power stage or finish second and be second fastest in the power stage.
• Ross would have to win the rally and be top three in the power stage.

Cat 1A:

Todd Bawden simply has to finish to win the title. With only three cars in the class, third in the rally and third in the power stage would leave him with a 31-point lead going to Coromandel.

O/A 2WD:

This one will go to the final round regardless. With Ari Pettigrew in Cat 1 for the weekend, he would lose the lead if Dylan Thomson wins regardless of power stage points, or finishes second and is top four in the power stage, or third and second fastest in the power stage, or fourth and wins the power stage.

Anthony Jones can overtake Pettigrew with a win and fourth in the power stage, or second with a power stage win.

Jeff Judd would have to win and be second fastest or better in the power stage to overtake Pettigrew.

Cat 2:

If Dylan Thomson DNF’s and scores no power stage points, to keep the championship alive:

• Brendon Wadsworth needs to finish
• Jordan Grant needs to finish
• Jeff Ward needs to win the rally and the power stage

If Thomson finishes, he will wrap up the title regardless of power stage or any further results.

Cat 3:

Pettigrew is already champion.

Cat 4:

Anthony Jones can win the championship if Shane Murland, Jeff Judd and John Silcock all DNF, otherwise this one will go to the final round at Coromandel.

O/A Cat5:

This one is closer than it looks. Best three results from the first four events count, plus the final round (can’t be dropped).

If Andy Martin wins the rally and power stage, he can gain six points to 85 total.

If Quentin Palmer wins the rally and power stage, he can gain 30 points to 90 total.

If Wayne Muckle wins the rally and power stage, he can gain 30 points to 76 total.

If Amy Keighley wins the rally and power stage, she can gain 18 points to 63 total.

If David Sievers wins the rally and power stage, he can gain 30 points to 73 total.

If Sean Haggerty wins the rally and the power stage, he can gain 30 points to 70 total.

Cat 5a:

Best three from the first four events count, plus the final round (can’t be dropped)

If Andy Martin wins the rally and power stage, he can gain six points to 85 total.

If Quentin Palmer wins rally and power stage, he can gain 30 points to 90 total.

If Amy Keighley wins the rally and power stage, she can gain 15 points to 66 total.

If Wayne Muckle wins rally and power stage, he can gain 30 points to 76 total.

If David Sievers wins the rally and power stage, he can gain 30 points to 74 total.

If Sean Haggerty wins the rally and the power stage, he can gain 30 points to 71 total.

Cat 5b:

Best three from the first four count, plus the final round (can’t be dropped). A few wild card entries that are joining in the final two rounds could shake the results up heavily.

If Sam Byrne wins the rally and power stage, he can gain 9 points to 79 total.

Tim Smith is not doing Hawkes Bay, so would start the final on 60 points.

If Daniel Haines wins the rally and power stage, he can gain 30 points to 85 total.

Group A:

Best two from the first four count, plus the final round (can’t be dropped).

If Sean Haggerty wins the rally and the power stage, he can gain 4 points to 60.

If Chris Lockyear wins the rally and the power stage, he can gain 8 points to 56.

If Jay Sharp wins the rally and the power stage, he can gain 30 points to 60.

If Matt Hayward wins the rally and the power stage, he can gain 30 points to 56.

Junior:

No power stage points available in Junior:

Pettigrew could win if Jordan Grant and Amy Keighley both don’t finish and he does. Likely to go to the final round.

Rookie:

No power stage points available in Rookie:

Any of the top eight are in theoretical contention; save mass retirements it will go to the final round.

Gold Card:

If Shane Murland finishes, he wraps up the title.

Teams Cup Cat 1-4:

Combination of class points scored, so 120 points remain available:

Paddon Rallysport (Hayden Paddon/Ari Pettigrew) would have to have a double DNF to not wrap up the team’s championship at Hawkes Bay. Only potential challengers remaining are Team Fiesta (Phil Campbell/Dylan Thomson) and Jones Motorsport (Anthony Jones/Bryn Jones).

Teams Cup Cat 5:

Combination of class points scored, so 120 points remain available:

The Ditch Drivers (Matt Wright/Sean Haggerty) currently lead by one point over Team Send It (Andy Martin/Matt Hayward) however the Ditch Drivers are one driver down at Hawke’s Bay so advantage is with Team Send It.

Manufacturers:

No power stage points available:

Hyundai hold a solid lead, but with only one representative are far from assured. Of the eight manufacturers to have scored points this season (Hyundai, Ford, Mitsubishi, Mazda, Subaru, Holden, Skoda and Suzuki), only Holden are out of the running with no representative at Hawke’s Bay meaning they are unable to overcome the 38-point gap at the final round. Subaru, Skoda and Suzuki would need to out score Hyundai to remain in contention going to the final round.