By the numbers – Google Grant’s key numbers for Rally Whangarei
THE RACE TO THE GOLD STAR – AND THEN THERE WERE TWO – ALMOST – AS OTHERS COULD STILL INFLUENCE THE FINAL OUTCOME: – UPDATED:
Another Hayden Paddon master class at Rally BOP has edged him just that little bit closer to championship leader Ben Hunt, who fought back from a puncture and, despite a couple of cancelled stages, still managed to climb back up to third and thereby concede only two more points than he would have expected/hoped going into the rally.
That means Ben’s lead has been trimmed to 12, so the pressure continues to mount on the 2015/2019 Gold Star Champion as the two-day Whangarei has a maximum of 44 points compared to 36 for a set of 2nd Places – Power Stage, 2 x Legs and Round.
A set of 3rds yields only 29, making a 15-point swing to first, so Ben has to fight for seconds at every opportunity.
The first key ‘point’ will come as early as straight after lunch on Saturday afternoon with the second pass of the Helena stage which is the NZRC Power Stage for all categories.
If Ben was to slip up here, puncture or finish below fifth he would miss out on four points and (as long as Hayden wins the stage) suddenly HP has grabbed all the momentum and the theoretical championship lead.
That’s because even if Ben was then still able to place second on both Legs and second in the rally, that would only give him 32 points for the round, which would mean they would finish tied on 164 points. However, the tie break rule is number of round wins and Hayden would well and truly take that with five to Ben’s 0.
And of course there’s the other top Gold Star drivers like Robbie Stokes, Emma Gilmour, Zeal Jones, Dylan Thomson, Stewart Reid and Haydn Mackenzie who are all more than capable of capitalising on any delay for Ben and nipping in and then the situation gets even tighter.
And, if both Hayden and Ben were to DNF, then we could well be in for a three-way shootout between Robbie, Emma and Zeal for the title.
Fyi – Mike Young and Jack Hawkeswood are not competing as NZRC entries this weekend and will be fully focused on their APRC title aspirations, but more on that a bit later.
So, as Hayden has said, he can only control what he can control, whereas Ben has to go fast enough to stay ahead of everyone else and has to stay out of any time-consuming trouble.
However, in spite of all his experience, there is one new element that Hayden has never faced before in his NZRC career – in all his seven titles he has always gone into the final round as the championship leader and successfully defended his lead. He has never been the chaser before.
WE HAVE A FEW MORE CHAMPIONS ALREADY THIS YEAR:
The Rally BOP results doubled our count of champions for 2024 with a round to go.
As mentioned last month prior to BOP: Willy Hawes’ co-driver Jason Dwyer had an unassailable lead in Cat 3 while Jared Parker’s co-driver Kyle Shears successfully defended his title from 2023.
Now with Mark Parsons joining Paul Fraser for Whangarei we can confirm that
Helen Cameron has taken out the Cat 4 co-drivers award to go with her classic title in 2009.
The latest additions to the Roll Of Honour now are: The junior champion is Zeal Jones – still at 19 years of age – the same as one H.Paddon was in 2006 when he became junior and rookie champions.
And a perfect five rounds points score has seen cousins Dylan and Bayden Thomson claim yet another pair of 2WD Rally Championships and naturally the Cat 2 (FIA 2WD) titles as well, making this six times the double for Dylan since his first in 2017.
But so much consistency by so many over the preceding five rounds means that the other 20 titles are still undecided.
We’ve already gone over the Gold Star and Cat 1 permutations and these other awards are just as intriguing:
CAT 3:
As mentioned above as a two-day round there are a maximum of 44 points for winning and 36 for placing second available in Categories 3 and 4, but as there are just two starters in Cat 3, Willy Hawes will have to DNF for Dave Strong to make up the 26-point deficit after he failed to finish at Otago.
CAT 4:
Similarly, Paul Fraser starts 23 points in front of Mike Cameron, and with Anthony Jones expected to dominate at Whangarei, the difference between the maximum second set of points (36) and third (29) is only seven points, so again Paul will need to retire for Mike to join his ‘Lolly Lady’ as a double Cat 4 champion.
RALLY CHALLENGE AND CAT 5A:
There are four contenders here and all are South Islanders with only one having experienced the rollicking roads of Northland.
James Macdonald (on 67 points) was at Whangarei last year but was out in the early afternoon run through Helena.
So a level playing field awaits and a fascinating contest is in prospect as the other three – Andrew Graves (88), Caleb MacDonald (77) and Carter Strang (74) – fight to take it right down to the double pass of the Pohe Island Super Stage on Saturday evening.
With 30 points on offer, Jay Pittams (58) can equal current points leader Andrew Graves, but Andrew would still take the title on countback as the winner of three rounds to what would be Jay’s one.
CAT 5B:
Very similar to Categories 3 and 4 as there are ‘only’ three starters with Kyle Percival joining, so to overhaul leader Jared Parker’s perfect three round score of 90, Pat Norris (82) really has to depend on Jared retiring.
CAT 5C GROUP A:
Three still in contention and they are all competing. Andrew Graves has the maximum three round score of 90 and, despite his dominance, still only has a nine-point lead over James Macdonald with Jay Pittams just three points further back.
ROOKIE DRIVER:
This one has the most drivers still in the mix with six set to take it to the wire and as its based purely on finishing to earn any points, (ie no power stage) 25 is the best anyone can score and all six rounds count.
So Caleb MacDonald’s late decision to go to Rally BOP – and win there – catapulted him into the lead, so he will start with a six-point advantage over his Cat 5 Teams Cup teammate Carter Strang (92 to 86). Willy Hawes is the only one with the full five scores on 79, then comes three round winner Andrew Graves (yes, he’s an NZRC ‘Driver’ Rookie despite his arm’s length list of local rally successes) on 75. He has Jay Pittams right behind on 74 and young Jack Stokes’ DNF at Rally BOP has proved costly after being in second going to Tauranga as he stayed on 71.
GOLD CARD DRIVER:
Unfortunately for our Aussie visitor Stewart Reid (75 points) winning the first three rounds has counted for nothing after two DNFs at the latest pair, as winning at Whangarei won’t be enough to overhaul Paul Fraser’s current total of 102. Defending champion Dave Strong has stormed back into contention taking the two wins Stewart couldn’t and starts 10 points adrift of the Cat 4 favourite.
Snapping at Dave’s heels is the other Cat 4 runner Mike Cameron on 91.
So with Greeny making a welcome return and Stewart the likely front runner another ‘classic’ contest is in store.
INTERNATIONAL DRIVER:
Stewart Reid may be out of luck in the Gold Card contest, but those three round wins have him at the top of the leaderboard in this one.
Vanuatu’s Julien Lenglet is the only other contender 9 points behind and with fellow countryman Pierre-Henri Brunet and Eugene Creugnet from New Caledonia both very capable of a top result, there’s still plenty to play for.
MANUFACTURERS:
Ford (117) lead here by virtue of the Bonus Points (5 lots of 3) earned by their Cat 2 entries and in particular Dylan Thomson who has also stepped up to score overall points at the latest two rounds when Robbie Stokes has had his issues. And with Dylan opting to join Cat 1 in a Subaru this weekend the Blue Oval’s 13-point lead over Skoda’s Ben Hunt’s consistency and 17 ahead of Hyundai’s Hayden Paddon’s maximum four scores will require Robbie to bounce back or a strong overall result from the trio of Cat 2 Fiestas to hold off the pair fighting for the Gold Star.
Not forgetting that Zeal Jones is the ‘back-up’ Skoda entry here as well.
With 25 points on offer Citroen’s Emma Gilmour (98) has a mathematical chance of pinching the title, but that very much depends on those in front coming unstuck. With Toyota (also on 98) having no Cat 1 starters at Whangarei, Willy Hawes will have to continue to carry their hopes and again lots has to go wrong with the Cat 1 brigade up front for them to come through.
TEAMS CUP CATS 1-4:
Another title full of permutations as 4 of the 7 teams still have a mathematical chance to win and all 4 have both their drivers starting this final round.
Rally4Play (Dylan Thomson/Bryn Jones) have a 9 point lead over the Skoda NZ Rally Team of Ben Hunt/Zeal Jones with Paddon Racing Group (Hayden Paddon/Emma Gilmour) a further 14 points behind. Robbie & Jack’s Stokes Motorsport are down in fourth now 36 points in arrears having been the leaders after the South Island rounds.
TEAMS CUP CAT 5:
Just like the other Teams Cup the lesser powered pair of Jared Parker and Pat Norris have Thunderbirds Are Go out in a 25-point lead over the
EVO South pairing of Carter Strang and Caleb MacDonald in what is down to a 2 Horse Race.
BRIAN GREEN JUNIOR RALLY SCHOLARSHIP:
Once again another title dominated by Dylan Thomson who has scored the most points of the 4 participants at each round so far to currently lead Bryn Jones by 223 points. However that’s it for Dylan with his decision to run in Cat 1 so, with 25 points for going fastest on a stage it is still possible that Bryn could overhaul Dylan come the end of Saturday’s 10 Stage competition. So Bryn’s target would be to go at least 2nd fastest on 8 stages and quickest on 2. This would give him 244 points but, like Ben Hunt in the Gold Star, he needs to be very careful to not slip up somewhere as 9 x 2nds and just 1 x 1st would total 223 points and the resulting Tie Break would go in Dylan’s favour as he has recorded more Stage First Placings during the series. Jack Stokes and Jared Parker are the other two who will be sure to be keeping Bryn working hard all the way through Leg One.
OUR NEXT RISING STAR FROM THE RISING SUN IS OFF TO FINLAND:
We mentioned last month that Zeal Jones was off to Japan for his shot at the Toyota Gazoo Racing World Rally Team WRC Challenge Program – an opportunity of a lifetime that could lead to a WRC career.
Well the awesome news announced last week is that Zeal has qualified and will now head to Finland next month to participate in the final shootout.
He is one of six, out of one hundred, who made it through the semi-finals and a seventh driver – who qualified by winning the Morizo Challenge Cup – will now prepare for the final shoot-out in Finland in December.
All will be tested physically and have their skills on ice and snow evaluated before one is signed up for the TOYOTA GAZOO Racing WRC Challenge Program as a Generation 4 driver.
BUT WAIT, THERE’S STILL MORE AT STAKE THIS WEEKEND
AS THIS YEAR WHANGAREI IS ALSO THE FINAL OF THE FIA ASIA-PACIFIC RALLY CHAMPIONSHIP:
After 16 editions since 2007 – half of which have been won by Hayden Paddon – this will be the first time Whangarei has hosted the Final of the APRC.
The final is a winner-takes-all round with all 12 Crews eligible to take away an FIA Regional Rally Championship.
The FIA Junior APRC Championship is for Drivers under 28 years of age, so this year that’s three of our leading drivers – Robbie Stokes, Zeal Jones and Jack Hawkeswood.
The FIA APRC Pacific Rally Cup is a 3-round series – Otago, Japan and Whangarei – so there are already points on the board.
10 of the 12 International Rally entries are eligible for this with Otago Winner Jack Hawkeswood currently leading on 30 points.
Robbie Stokes is 2nd on 24, Ben Hunt 3rd on 21, Mike Young 4th on 19, (Todd Bawden 17), Emma Gilmour 15, Zeal Jones 13, Tim Mackersy 11, with Fuyuhiko Takahashi 5 (from Japan), Mastoshi Konishi 3 (from Japan) and Hayden Paddon 0.
Hayden has won the Pacific Cup twice, 10 years apart – in 2009 and 2019.
So for the first time this year HP is not really in the running to win a title, but rest assured he will be the firm favourite to add the overall APRC Championship – which he won in 2022 – to his already overflowing 2024 trophy cabinet and if he does do that it’s pretty realistic to expect he will also be an 8-times New Zealand Rally Champion come Sunday evening.
Tweet
